Rangers 2, Yankees 0: Yu Darvish finally arrives. Eight and a third innings, ten strikeouts and a big goose egg in the runs column against the best offense in baseball.
Rays 5, Angels 0: David Price: five-hit shutout. Albert Pujols: 0 for 4. He has the lowest slugging percentage of anyone in last night's Angels lineup with the exception of Peter Bourjos.
THE MYTH: Left-handed pitching is worth more than right-handed pitching.
Culminating our three part series on Matt Cain’s six-year, $127.5 million contract – the largest ever for a right-handed pitcher – we’ll examine the salary disparity between righty and lefty pitching and see if Southpaws are actually worth the hefty contracts they command.
The four pitchers we looked at in part 1 – Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Carlos Zambrano and John Lackey – all had average annual salaries ranging from $16 million to $18.3 million.
Collectively, those four righties had an average annual salary of $16.95 million.
The four lefties we’ll look at today – Barry Zito, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia and Johan Santana – have a combined average annual salary of $21.97 million.
That’s a difference of just over $5 million annually.
So what does that extra $5 million a year buy the Giants, the Phillies, the Yankees and the Mets? Let’s look.
Barbershop quartet
Johan Santana
Latest contract: Six years, $137.5 million
Avg. annual: $22.9 million
Date signed: February 1, 2008
Bad pun: Johan? More like, “No-han.”
Before the contract: 93-44 record, 3.22 ERA, a 1.094 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 ratio, two Cy Young Awards and three All Star appearances over parts of eight seasons.
Yeah, there’s a lot of boldface in there.
After the contract: Santana gets a lot of flak for not pitching up to his contract, but his first two seasons with the Mets were pretty impressive. In 2008, his first season with his new club, he set multiple career records for himself, including lowest season ERA (2.53), most innings pitched (234.1), and most batters faced (964). He started 34 games that year, tied for his previous career high in 2006, and finished third in the Cy Young voting.
The Venezuela native starter had a relatively successful 2009 campaign, going 13-9 with a 3.13 ERA, 7.9 K/9 ratio and a higher-than-average 1.21 WHIP. He was voted to the All-Star team, but only made 25 starts before arthroscopic surgery in his left elbow sidelined the rest of his season. The team placed him on the 15-day disabled list on August 25 that year.
After the surgery, Santana wasn’t quite the same.
He showed flashes of brilliance in 2010 – like his 3-0 record and 0.71 ERA in parts of July – but there were also some stinkers. Namely, the worst start of his MLB career, where he gave up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Phillies on May 2.
Again, an injury cut his season short when he strained his pectoral muscle September 2 in a game against Atlanta. He had rotator cuff surgery on September 15 and would miss the entire 2011 season.
Through two starts this year, the lefty is 0-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.5 WHIP and 13 strikeouts in 11.1 innings.
Cliff Lee
Latest contract: Five years, $120 million
Avg. annual: $24 million
Date signed: December 15, 2010
Bad pun: Now that he wears red and white, everyone should call him Clifford the Big Red Hurler.
Before the contract: Before winning his Cy Young in 2008, Lee actually wasn’t that dominant of a pitcher. In 2004, Lee’s first full season, the Arkansas native went 14-8 but had a horrid 5.43 ERA. He gave up 30 homers that season, 21st most in the majors, and walked 81 batters, tied for 15th with Carlos Zambrano and Barry Zito.
In 2006, Lee’s 1.405 WHIP was 29th worst in the majors. 31st worst? Barry Zito, with a 1.403 WHIP. Lee’s 4.40 ERA betrays his 14-11 record, as he was helped along by a Cleveland offense that was second in the majors in runs scored, fourth in batting average, third in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging percentage.
Lee didn’t really have a breakout season until 2008, when he posted an absurd 22-3 record, 2.54 ERA, 1.4 BB/9 ratio and 1.11 WHIP and won both All Star honors and the Cy.
In 2010, the man gave up 18 walks and 16 home runs with the Mariners and the Rangers. That’s insane.
Save for his two starts against the Giants in the 2010 World Series, Lee was a dominant postseason pitcher with the 2009 Phillies and the 2010 Rangers. He was 7-0 with three complete games, a 1.01 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. Lee was 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP in the aforementioned World Series.
After the contract: Lee’s return trip to the Phillies for more than $30 million less than the Yankees offered him proved a successful venture for him. The big lefty finished 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA, six complete game shutouts and 238 strikeouts in 232.2 innings.
Though he finished third in the Cy voting and earned his third career All Star selection, he disappointed in the NLDS, giving up three runs in six innings of work to the St. Louis Cardinals in his only start. The Cardinals won the best-of-five series, 3-2.
CC Sabathia
Latest contract: Seven years, $161 million
Avg. annual: $23 million
Date signed: December 18, 2008
Bad pun: Everyone knows what “CC” stands for. Cheese curls. Because the man eats a lot of them. What I’m trying to say is, he’s got some girth.
Before the contract: Not lights out, but Sabathia is and will forever remain the penultimate workhorse. Sabathia was second in the 2001 Rookie of the Year voting, but it’s a hard sell to say he deserved that much consideration. His 17-5 record was impressive. His 4.39 ERA and 1.35 WHIP were not.
He also walked the fifth most batters in the majors that year (95) but struck out 171 batters in 180.1 innings, so he was able to limit the damage when batters reached against him.
From 2001-2008, Sabathia went 117-73 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 1,393 K’s in 1,659.1 innings. He made three All Star appearances during that time and won the Cy Young Award in 2008.
After the contract: Over the next three seasons, Sabathia pitched an average of 235 innings a season. He posted a 59-23 record, 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
He was outstanding in the 2009 postseason, where he went 3-1 with a 1.92 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 36.1 innings, though he lost one World Series start and earned a no decision on the other. The Yankees beat the Phillies in six games to earn their 27th World Series championship trophy.
Barry Zito
Latest contract: 7 years, $126 million
Avg. annual: $18 million
Date signed: December 29, 2006
Biggest qualm: You ruined my perfect quartet of overpaid, pinstriped pitchers, Barry. Thanks a lot.
Before the contract: Zito was a three-time All Star and a 2002 Cy Young Award winner over parts of seven seasons, with a 102-63 record, 3.55 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with the Athletics.
Zito struggled his last three seasons with the A’s to the tune of a 41-34 record, 4.05 ERA and an 8.3 H/9 ratio. The shortest outing of his career came in 2006 against the New York Yankees, when he allowed 7 earned runs in just 1.1 innings.
Despite his difficulties, Zito threw 200 or more innings in each of his six full seasons with the A’s. He never missed a scheduled start and led the American League in starts four times. There’s obvious value in that.
After the contract: There just isn’t much value in a 43-61 record, a 4.55 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in five seasons with his new club, the Giants. In April 2008, Zito went 0-6 with a 7.53 ERA, becoming just the third pitcher in the last 52 years to go 0-6 before May 1.
His horrible start earned him a demotion to the bullpen, though he returned to the rotation nine days later, on May 7, having never made a relief appearance.
The 2009 season saw a bit of a resurgence in Zito’s performance, though he still posted a losing record (10-13), and a promising start to the 2010 season ended in a disappointing fashion, Zito going 9-14 with a 4.15 ERA.
After an ankle injury cost Zito his spot in the 2011 rotation, the Las Vegas lefty was slotted in a utility role, starting just 9 games and pitching 53.2 innings on the season.
And then, redemption. In his first start this season, Zito pitched a 7-0 complete game shutout against the Rockies. It was his first shutout since 2003.
Some spin wins, some toss losses
Time to look at the four righties we examined two weeks ago and the four lefties we examined today and see how much better the Southpaws actually fare.
THE RIGHTIES (after signing their new contracts)
Seasons pitched: 11
Record: 133-80
Average ERA: 4.02
Innings pitched: 1,871.1
Strikeouts: 1,582
Walks: 647
Hits: 1,743
Complete games: 12
Shutouts: 5
Home runs given up: 179
THE LEFTIES (after signing their new contracts)
Seasons pitched: 13
Record: 161-120
Average compiled ERA: 3.24
Innings pitched: 2,434
Strikeouts: 2008
Walks: 795
Hits: 2,215
Complete games: 23
Shutouts: 13
Home runs given up: 230
THE BOTTOM LINE: The lefties we looked at had 2 more seasons worth of data to draw from, but there are some sizable differences in the numbers.
The lefties won 28 more games than the righties did, and with a $5 million difference in average annual salaries, that’s $20 million spent across four clubs for a collective 28 wins.
That amounts to $714,285 per win.
Our lefties lost 40 more games than our righties did, but pitched 563.2 more innings, racked up 852 more strikeouts, pitched 11 more complete games, 8 more shutouts and posted an ERA 0.78 points below the opposition.
Even with an extra two seasons of data, there’s no way Beckett, Lackey, Zambrano or Verlander make up for those disparate figures.
The win goes to the Southpaws (as if they need another one).
So I guess Matt Cain started off the season pretty well. Initially, anyway.
After signing a six-year, $127.5 million contract with the San Francisco Giants earlier this month, Cain pitched a complete game shutout in a 5-0 win against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He surrendered one hit and struck out 11.
He got knocked around in his second start though, giving up 5 runs on 6 hits in 6 innings of work as the Giants dropped a 7-6 decision to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Two starts does not a season make, but if Cain finds a middle ground, which he’s apt to do, he’ll be the model of consistency the Giants hoped he’d be when they signed him.
Great expectations
Last week, in light of the Cain signing, we looked at some of the biggest contracts handed out to right-handed pitchers and examined their performance before and after their paydays. As one reader pointed out, some of the stats that were brought up – wins, specifically – weren’t the best measure of pitching acumen.
That’s partly correct, considering Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez have a combined 29-20 record in their Cy Young winning seasons. In 2009, Greinke’s winning year, the anxiety-prone hurler’s .667 (16-8 record) win percentage was 10th-best in majors, but he led with a 9.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and a 2.16 ERA.
In 2010, Hernandez’s winning year, his .520 winning percentage (13-12 record) was 37th best in the majors, but his 2.27 ERA was tops. He also faced 1,001 batters that season, more than any other pitcher and the only one to break the 1,000 mark. Dan Haren was second, facing 994 batters pitching for the Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Angels.
That Hernandez won as many games as he did was a feat, considering the Seattle Mariners were dead last in the majors in almost every offensive category, including batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, home runs, RBIs, runs scored and total bases.
So win-loss records aren’t the end all be all. But the four pitchers we looked at last week all had solid ERAs to accompany their record.
Zambrano was 59-32 with a 3.14 ERA, Beckett was 41-34 with a 3.46 ERA, Lackey was 102-71 with a 3.81 ERA and Verlander was 65-43 with a 3.92 ERA.
Were some of them helped by an explosive offense and airtight defense? Absolutely. Every pitcher is at some point. Mark Buerhle’s perfect game against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays wasn’t without its incredible defensive plays. But it’s not like Zambrano, Beckett, Lackey or Verlander posted huge win numbers with an ERA over 5.00.
Together, those four pitchers average a $16.95 million annual salary. For a team like the Atlanta Braves, who ranked 15th in the majors last year with an $87 million payroll, $16.95 million would tie up almost 20% of that.
What have you done for me lately?
But the Braves and the Boston Red Sox met the same fate in 2011, losing on the last day of the season and ending their bid for a playoff berth. The Braves spent $39,415,000 on pitching that season.
The Red Sox spent $76,785,333 in that department.
Boston’s three winningest pitchers – Beckett, Lackey and Jon Lester – combined for 40 wins and collectively made $38.7 million.The club paid $967,500 for each of those 40 wins.
Atlanta spent $12.7 million on their three winningest hurlers – Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson – and also got 40 wins out of them. They spent $317,500 for each of those 40 wins- a third of what Boston spent.
Boston finished 90-72 last year, while the Braves were 89-73. Same result, similar wins, different payroll.
You’re killin’ me, Smalls
For fans, casual or hardcore, it’s easy to forget that a huge contract isn’t necessarily a smart one, nor is it an indicator of future performance. Clubs obviously spend big money on players based on past performance in hopes that that player continues to shine in the future.
Despite the outcome last season, the Braves spent their money wisely on those 40 wins, though the same can’t be said for some of their other contracts. Derek Lowe definitely didn’t earn his $15 million paycheck, going 9-17 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP. There’s no “it’s-not-as-bad-as-it-looks” analysis with that one – the man just didn’t pitch well.
Contracts are such a crapshoot that it’s hard to blame Boston for saddling themselves with millions in dead money (Lackey) and underperforming players (Beckett). But certain players, like Verlander, have proven so far that they’re the model of consistency and have earned their big paydays.
And with his record-breaking contract, Matt Cain now has to do the same.
No pressure, big guy.
—
I promised in my last entry I’d look at huge contracts given to left-handed pitchers this week, but last week’s data needed more analysis. Keep an eye out next week for the lefty portion.
THE MYTH: Big contracts beget stud pitchers.
Alright, maybe it’s not an actual conundrum. But when two-time All Star Matt Cain, the San Francisco Giants’ No. 2 starter, signed a six-year, $127.5 million contract with the club, some were speculating whether Tim Lincecum’s eventual payday could lead to MLB’s first $200 million pitcher.
Cain deserves it. The man’s posted an earth-shattering 69-73 record, an eye-popping 3.35 ERA and an inhuman 7.4 K/BB ratio over parts of 7 seasons. He should carry around a ball gag and leather chaps and force opposing batters to wear them, he’s just that dominant.
His closest comps on Baseball Reference are Pascual Perez and Johnny Niggeling.
Pascual Perez and Johnny Niggeling. Let that sink in for a second.
You get the point. Cain’s a talented pitcher in a weaker offensive league with an absurd contract, one that made him the highest paid right-hander in MLB history with $21.25 million average annual salary over the life of the deal. But it’s a contract for an elite pitcher, and Cain is just a very good one. Much better than most pitchers in the game, but not elite.
In anticipation of Cain’s first start of the season against the Arizona Diamondbacks, we’ll take a look at some of baseball’s biggest contracts doled out to right-handed pitchers and see how their new deals affected their performance.
Carlos Zambrano
Latest contract: 5 years, $91.5 million
Avg. annual: $18.3 million
Date signed: August 17, 2007
Little known fact: This is a rare picture of Zambrano actually pitching instead of chucking his glove at a teammate, coach or umpire.
Before the contract: Zambrano broke into the majors in 2001, but didn’t settle into a full season as a starter until 2003, when he went 13-11 with a 3.11 ERA over 214 innings. His strikeouts steadily rose each season and he racked up 168, 188, 202 and 210 K’s from 2003-2006.
Over that time, Zambrano posted a 59-32 record with a 3.14 ERA and 768 K’s in 861 innings. He pitched six complete games and two shutouts and was named to the All Star team in 2004 and 2006 and finished 5th in the Cy Young voting both of those years.
After the contract: Despite ramping up the crazy, Big Z actually had a solid five seasons after signing his new contract. He went 61-39 with a 3.96 ERA, 677 punch outs, 3 complete games and 2 shutouts in 849 innings. He finished 5th in the Cy Young voting again in 2007, was an All Star in 2008 and won two Silver Sluggers in 2008 and 2009. Apparently batting was Big Z’s anger outlet, much like punching a pillow is mine and beer and Popeye’s is Josh Beckett’s.
Josh Beckett
Latest contract: 4 years, $91.5 million
Avg. annual: $17 million
Date signed: April 5, 2010
Little known fact: This is the face Beckett makes when John Lackey tells him, “Sorry Joshie, there’s only dark meat left.” →
Before the contract: Beckett came up with the Florida Marlins (now the Miami Marlins) in 2001. The rough-and-tumble Texan went 41-34 with a 3.46 ERA and earned World Series MVP honors in 2003 before the Marlins shipped him up to Boston – along with Mike Lowell and reliever Guillermo Mota – for stud shortstop Hanley Ramirez.
Beckett broke the 200-inning mark for the first time in his career in 2006, finishing with 204.2 innings pitched. He was a critical player in Boston’s 2007 World Series title, the club’s second in four years. He finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2007 and was named to the All Star team in 2007 and 2009. From 2006-2009, Beckett posted 65 wins, a 4.05 ERA and 723 strikeouts in 792 innings.
After the contract: A back injury ended Beckett’s 2010 campaign early, the righty going 6-6 with a 5.78 ERA over just 127.2 innings. Until last September’s chicken and beer scandal, Beckett redeemed himself with an impressive 2011 season with a 13-7 record, 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 193 innings. He lost three of his four September starts in an epic collapse that saw the Red Sox bounced from the postseason on the final game against the Baltimore Orioles on September 25.
Beckett’s first start in 2012 was abysmal. The big lug gave up 7 runs and 5 dingers in 4.2 innings of work as the Sox dropped a 10-0 decision to the Tigers.
John Lackey
Latest contract: 5 years, $82.5 million
Avg. annual: $16.5 million
Date signed: December 16, 2009
Little known fact: Et tu, Lackey? Oh never mind, John. You probably wouldn’t get the reference.
Before the contract: 2002 World Series champion, 2007 All Star and ERA leader and the Angels’ ace for seven years, Lackey was a bulldog on the mound.
In eight seasons with the Angels, Lackey went 102-71 with a 3.81 ERA, 1,201 K’s and a 1.30 WHIP in 1,501 innings of work. He gave up just 151 home runs in that span and pitched 14 complete games and 8 shutouts.
After the contract: Whether it was the pressure felt by a rabid fan base in a big market or simple wear-and-tear over the years, Lackey’s performance dropped off when he arrived in Boston in 2010.
He went 26-23, posted a 5.26 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP from 2010-2011 before Tommy John surgery sidelined his 2012 season. Lackey routinely refused to take responsibility for a bad outing, and most press conferences went like this:
Reporter: John, you gave up sixteen runs over two innings of work. It’s being heralded as two of the worst innings of baseball you’ve ever pitched in your entire career. How do you respond to that?
John: Felt pretty good physically today. Left a couple balls over the plate, made a mistake here and there. You can always pitch worse than you did after a start. I could have given up…I don’t know, eighteen runs in an inning and a third of work.
Reporter: Why were you yelling at Tito for yanking you to start the third? Couldn’t you tell how ineffectively you were pitching?
John: Arm felt real good, thought I had some good life on my fastball. You always want to give your team a chance to win. I wanted to do that. Just trying to go out there and compete, every day.
Oh, John.
Justin Verlander
Latest contract: 5 years, $80 million
Avg. annual: $16 million
Date signed: February 4, 2010
Little known fact: Justin Verlander and Will Smith’s character in I, Robot have something in common: they both have a freakish, bionic arm. The only difference is Smith’s left arm is robotic in the movie.
Before the contract: Total workhorse and stud pitcher. From 2005-2009, the big guy pitched to the tune of a 65-43 record and a 3.92 ERA, along with 6 complete games, 3 shutouts and 746 K’s in 840 innings. Oh, and only 80 homers served up in that time span.
He earned Rookie of the Year honors in 2006, was named to the All Star team in 2007 and 2009 and finished 5th and 3rd in the Cy Young voting for both seasons respectively.
After the contract: After going 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 224 innings in 2010, he improved vastly during his 2011 campaign.
Verlander won the pitching Triple Crown (leading the majors with a 24-5 record, 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts) last season and won the Cy Young award unanimously, while also earning MVP honors for his performance.
His 0.92 WHIP and 6.2 hits per 9 innings were the lowest of his career, and joins an impressive list of pitchers who won both awards in the same season, including Brooklyn’s Don Newcombe (1956), Los Angeles’ Sandy Koufax (1963), St. Louis’ Bob Gibson and Detroit’s Denny McLain (1968), Oakland’s Vida Blue (1971), Milwaukee’s Rollie Fingers (1981) and Detroit’s Willie Hernandez (1984).
Still a workhorse. Still a stud pitcher.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Whether Cain lives up to his contract remains a mystery, and one bad start this afternoon against Arizona won’t mean much.
Some pitchers, like Verlander, have lived up to their big contracts, while others – like Beckett and Lackey – have some ground to make up.
Look for ‘The Matt Cain Conundrum, part 2′ next week, as we examine some of the top lefthanded pitching contracts handed out over the years. Those Southpaws command a pretty penny, and more often than not, teams are willing to pay. Unfortunately.
Here’s lookin’ at you, Johan Santana.
