The Mendoza Line

By David Mendoza - Monday, November 24, 2014

Last week, Gallup released a poll that showed a majority of Americans believe crime increased last year. Sixty-three percent of Americans incorrectly said there was “more crime in the U.S than there was a year ago” — only 21% correctly said there was less crime. According to the FBI, the number of violent crimes reported fell 4.4% last year compared to 2012. The reported violent crime rate per 100,000 people fell by even more, 5.1%. Similarly, the rate of reported property crimes declined by 4.8% from 2013 to 2012.

The graph above charts the percent change in violent crime for each year and compares it to the percentage of Americans who said there was “more crime” in the previous year than the one before. For instance, in 1996, the reported violent crime per 100,000 people declined by 7% — one of the largest declines in the past two decades. However, according to 71% of Americans, there was more crime. In fact, 14 out of 20 times that Gallup asked this crime question, Americans got it wrong. The exceptions are show in black: 1989, 1990, 2000, 2001, 2005, and 2006. The same trend emerges for property crimes. Americans incorrectly said crime went up 17 out of 20 times, when property crime had actually declined.

Reported violent and property crimes have declined yearly since 2000. The overall drop in crime has been even more substantial. Since 2000, the reported violent crime rate declined 27.4% and the property crime rate fell 24.5%. Despite these amazing statistics, Americans keep contradicting reality. Below is a chart by Gallup showing the persistent belief among Americans that crime keeps increasing.